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Trader Talk
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The government reported that gasoline prices in April were down 2 percent when "seasonally adjusted." How could this be, when we know prices went up at the pump?
Here's how it happened:
1) The actual increase in gasoline prices was 5.6%.
2) But the government statistics indicate that gasoline tends to rise by 7.6% in April.
3) But because they rose less than that--5.6%--gasoline was reported to be down 2 percent "seasonally adjusted"
It has to do with the phrase "seasonally adjusted." The government adjusts numbers to remove the impact of regular events that occur at the same time every year--like increases in gas prices in April, or the effect of cold weather on housing starts.
There is nothing nefarious about this--the question is whether the "adjustments" are fair and accurate.
Questions? Comments?
- HMOs Up Despite Looming House Vote
- What The Street Thinks of The Jobless Report
- Friday It's All About Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- October Retail Sales—The Good, Bad and Ugly?
- When Good News = Good News
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- October Retail Sales—Early Buzz is Strong
- Traders Digest Election Results
- Whitney's Vision For The New Normal
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Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes