Skip navigation

Current DateTime: 01:06:33 09 Jan 2009
LinksList Documentid: 24355697
  • The Ten Best Jobs in America

      What makes a "good" job? Salary? Physical demands? Stress level? JobsRated.com has released a comprehensive ranking of the best and worst careers in the country.

  • 25 Years of Tech Blunders

      In the last 25 years, many technology companies have continued the tradition of ill-timed, useless and just plain bad “innovation.” In honor of the 09 CES show, we’ve compiled a list.

  • Money-Making Stars of 2008

      Every year since 1932, Quigley Publishing has surveyed theater owners and film buyers to get their take on which Hollywood names draw the most people to the theaters.

  • See Our Entire Slideshow Archive

Current DateTime: 06:03:07 09 Jan 2009
LinksList Documentid: 24890560
  • Consumer Electronics Show

      All things on the design, development, manufacturing, distribution and integration of consumer electronics products.

  • Taxes & Stocks

      There's money-saving, tax-planning work to be done before the New Year strikes. Our special will get you started.

  • Predictions '09

      Find out what trends, events, people and forces are likely to shape the world of business in 2009.

El-Erian: Commodity Surge a Double-Edged Sword
By: CNBC.com | 09 Jul 2008 | 11:25 AM ET
Text Size

Rising commodity prices are threatening not only the United States, but also economies from emerging nations across the globe, Pimco Co-CEO Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC.

The surge in commodities such as oil and grains has posed a good news-bad news scenario that investors will need to watch closely, the head of the world's largest bond fund manager said.

"The good news is that the causality is shifting. You're coming from a period where higher growth meant higher commodity prices, to a period where higher commodity prices are going to mean lower growth," El-Erian said. "That means ultimately commodity prices are going to have to come down because growth is slowing.

"The bad news is it's not clear what the circuit breaker is. So be careful if you get into growth dynamics that are too negative that you get into a tipping point situation," he said.

El-Erian said it's not clear where the break in the commodities trade will come, but he said the economic problems posed by higher prices will be felt especially acutely in the United States. At the same time, other nations are altering their strategies to deal with soaring energy, raw materials and food costs.

"We may now be getting to a tipping point where commodities break the real economy, and that's what we have to worry about," he said.

"What has changed fundamentally in the last two months is that with the spike in commodity prices, the rest of the world that has been growing very rapidly and helping us is now starting to slow," he added. "And you're seeing policy makers in India and China saying, 'I'm willing to sacrifice some growth in order to contain inflation.' "

In wide-ranging comments, El-Erian also said he expects a shakeout to come in the financial sector, though he expected mergers rather than bankruptcies to dominate the landscape.

"Things are bad because the credit crisis has moved into an economic crisis and everywhere the economies are slowing down," he said. "Things are bad because policy makers don't have easy solutions."

Investors can find opportunities in this climate but need to be careful, he said.

"You need to be able to hold on when it gets bumpy," El-Erian said. "This is not a linear journey. This is a very bumpy journey and you have to have a long-term vision and have permanency of capital. Otherwise stay on the sidelines until things calm down."

"Remain diversified. Keep a cash cushion. You will have an opportunity to get in. It's better to be later than early in this market."

© 2008 CNBC.com

HOME  |  NEWS  |  MARKETS  |  EARNINGS  |  INVESTING  |  VIDEO  |  CNBC TV  |  CNBC PLUS  |  CNBC MOBILE  |  CNBC HD+
About CNBC   |   Site Map   |   Privacy Policy   |   Terms of Service   |   Advertise   |   Help   |   Feedback   |   Video Reprints
  Data is a real-time snapshot   *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis