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Pharma's Market
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A presumably one-episode character on the show has just been told she has cancer that has spread. Soon after her friend or sister, who wants the woman to put up a fight, chimes in with--and I'm paraphrasing because I couldn't get the show to play on my desktop, but this is pretty darn close--"There's a clinical trial where they're combining Avastin with chemo."
The character even correctly pronounced Avastin. Product placement--even verbal--is commonplace in network TV shows these days. But I can't recall a specific cancer drug being singled out by name in a drama or sitcom. And it might not be an example of formal product placement. Maybe one of the scriptwriters or medical consultants on the show just threw it in there for authenticity. After all, DNA does not do branded, direct-to-consumer advertising of its oncology products.
And just so this post isn't entirely frivolous, Genentech [
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]happens to report its third quarter earnings tomorrow after the closing bell. And, as always, Avastin sales are key. The Street expects revenue from the drug to come in around $760 million. But some analysts are forecasting a miss. In a research note to clients this morning, Bill Tanner at Leerink Swann writes, "Our estimate of $707 (million) reflects greater caution as to uptake in the (lung) and breast indications."
And in a conference call with clients and reporters last week, Deutsche Bank's Mark Schoenbaum, who predicts Avastin Q3 numbers of $744 million, said, "Breast cancer is where we think investor focus is now. It'll be important to listen (on the Genentech conference call) if sales are flat or disappointing. There will be a lot of questions about penetrating into breast. Anything less (than last quarter's 35 percent penetration) or flat will be disappointing. That's the most important single metric." Leerink may trade in DNA. DB makes a market in DNA and wants to bank the company.
In big cap biotech beaten down shares of Genentech, at least in the very early going, are the biggest dollar gainer in the sector this morning. Investors, perhaps, are making a commitment. If only Meredith and Derek could do the same.
Questions? Comments?
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