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The VIX [VIX
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], Wall Street's favorite measure of volatility, has now closed above the historically high level of a 30 for 50 days in a row. That's the longest period of extreme volatility in the history of the index.
“Investors are looking for some resolutions before volatility can possibly calm down," says Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group in Greenwich, Connecticut.
"They want to see stability in financials and they want to see a resolution in the Congress regarding the automakers. Even then, they are clamoring for a glimmer of hope on the economic front. Until then, I don't think market makers will be willing to command lower premiums for protective options."
How Much Longer?
Volatility is expected to stay the course for the remainder of 2008 and possibly beyond. There’s even speculation that these wild swing in the market will continue for the next 7 or 8 months.
But don’t tell that to Oppenheimer chief market strategist Carter Worth. He tells Dylan Ratigan, “Anyone who talks 7 or 8 months out, just walk out of the room. They don't know. No one knows.”
In fact Worth’s outlook is anything but volatile. “Our hunch is that after this very shocking collapsing market we should have apathy." In other words, Worth expects a period in which volatility and volumes start to dry up, "and the market enjoys a range of quietness and a period of healing.”
If you’re looking to trade Worth’s thesis, he has a few recommendations. “Our favorite areas are airlines [XAL
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], regional banks and biotech [BBH
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]. And avoid tech [XLK
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]. It’s all over the place, leave it alone.”
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Trader disclosure: On Dec. 2nd, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (MSFT), (WMT), (SDS); Macke Is Short (YHOO); Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (MSFT), (INTC), (NUE); Finerman's Firm Owns (DSX),(MSFT); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (IWM), (SPY), (MDY), (GNK), (USO), (BBT). (COF), (EXM); Pete Najarian Owns (UYG) Calls, (TLM) Calls
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