RECENT POSTS
FAST MONEY FEATURES
FAST MONEY POLLGet in the post game. Respond to our "Question of the Day" right now.
FULL SHOWSMissed an episode of Fast Money? Watch the lastest show here.
TRADE SCHOOLGrab a pencil because school is in session and the Fast Money traders are teaching class.
FAST MONEY PODCASTSDownload Fast Money onto your MP3 Player.
FAST MONEY WIDGETGrab this all-in-one application and get recaps of the show sent right to your desktop or blog.
SHOP FOR FAST MONEY MERCHANDISEGet your game on with Fast Money gear.
FAST MONEY PHOTOS!Check out our scrapbook. These "pix" are guaranteed winners.
NEWSLETTERSign up and receive a recap email every Friday after the show!
FAST MONEY MOBILE ALERTSGet advanced information about the next Fast Money.
Text Size 
 |
But it seems likely that Thursday's retail numbers will likely move at least a few stocks in the sector and we’d never leave you to fend for yourself. Here’s some insight.
The Expectations
Sales during last week's Black Friday, the traditional kickoff of the holiday shopping season, were better than many analysts expected. But the growth likely came at the expense of margins as stores cut prices aggressively.
"It seems like everything is about price point right now. If you weren't on sale, you're probably not selling right now," says Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics.
That means investors should not only watch forecasts when retailers report November sales on Thursday, but also for comments on margins and earnings.
The Trade
If you’re looking for a trade, Susquehanna strategist Stacey Gilbert has been watching the options action in the sector and she has some ideas.
Gilbert tells Fast Money that she’s seeing bullish volatility buying in Gap Inc. [GPS
Loading...
()
] ahead of their numbers. “December call buyers are gobbling up the 12 ½ calls,” she says. “There’s definitely an argument to be made that Gap has cash and it’s an interesting name during hard times.”
Other names Gilbert recommends watching including Abercrombie [ANF
Loading...
()
] and Ross Stores [ROST
Loading...
()
].
A Dud November
The timing of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, which fell later in the month this year, probably hurt sales, analysts said. Mild weather cut into sales of winter apparel.
"Even in normal circumstances, the loss of a week of post-Thanksgiving sales would have resulted in a weak November," Brean Murray, Carret & Co analyst Eric Beder said in a research note.
"When the current economic malaise and slightly warmer weather are added to the mix, the potential for any positive results becomes remote."
But Beder also said that investor expectations for retailers have reached a low, giving the sector a chance to bounce back in December. The Standard & Poor's retail index [.RLX
Loading...
()
] is down about 20 percent since the end of October.
Among retailers, Wal-Mart's [WMT
Loading...
()
] steady focus on offering low prices will keep it ahead of rivals, analysts said. The world's largest retailer had been aggressively promoting toys and food in the weeks leading up to Black Friday.
Rival Target Corp [TGT
Loading...
()
] is expected to post a 9.1 percent decline. Target had forecast a decline of 6 percent to 9 percent, with half the decline due to the later Thanksgiving.
Overall, department stores like Kohl's [KSS
Loading...
()
] and J.C. Penney [JCP
Loading...
()
] are expected to post an overall 14.5 percent decline. Apparel retailers' same-store sales are expected to drop 11.6 percent and teen and children's apparel is forecast to fall 12.3 percent.
Analysts on average expect a 2.5 percent decline in November same-store sales, according to Thomson Reuters data. That would be the biggest drop since Thomson Reuters began collecting same-store sales data in 2000.That means investors should not only watch forecasts when retailers report November sales on Thursday, but also for comments on margins and earnings.
- Halftime Report: Dubai - First Ripple Of Larger Crisis?
- Your First Move For Friday November 27th
- Web Extra: Private Equity, Conviction Buy?
- Pops & Drops: Abercrombie & Fitch, Nucor...
- Giving Thanks: Seymour
- Your Questions About... Alcoa & The Dollar
- Best Wishes Regis
- Gartman's Annual Rules For Trading
- Chartology: December Outlook
- Holiday Toy Trades
______________________________________________________
Got something to to say? Send us an e-mail at and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap. If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our website send those e-mails to .
Trader disclosure: On Dec. 3rd, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (MGM), (MSFT), (UUP), (WMT), (MCD); Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Finerman's Firm Owns (PM), (MO), (IBB), (PPH), (CSCO), (MSFT); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (IWM), (SPY), (BBT), (COF), (USO); Finerman's Firm Owns (DNA) And (DNA) Calls; Najarian Owns (NUE); Najarian Owns (UYG) Calls; Najarian Owns (SNDK) Calls
GE Is The Parent Company Of CNBC
Stacey Gilbert is a strategist with Susquehanna; Susquehanna Capital Group Is A Market Maker In (ANF); Susquehanna Capital Group Is A Market Maker In (GPS); Susquehanna Capital Group Is A Market Maker In (ROST); Susquehanna Capital Group Is A Market Maker In (WMT); Susquehanna Capital Group Is A Market Maker In (TGT)
CNBC.com with wires
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes