Credit Suisse

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[CS  Loading...      ()   ] on Thursday boosted its forecast on U.S. home foreclosures over the next four years to 8.1 million from 6.5 million, warning of a "subprime society" as economic weakness and falling home prices take a larger toll on homeowners.

AP Credit Siusse

The increase from April's forecast represents 16 percent of all mortgages, Credit Suisse analysts said in a report.

The housing downturn, now in its third year, has triggered a U.S. recession and motivated governments around the world to enact interest rate cuts and other programs to stabilize economies. Rising unemployment has exacerbated delinquencies on mortgages and other types of credit, and may push foreclosures above 10 million in a more severe recession, they said.

"The severe recession that appears more and more likely, coupled with the collapse of confidence in housing and resultant foreclosures and the impact on credit scores, risks transforming the U.S. into a subprime society," the analysts, led by Rod Dubitsky, said in the report.

The U.S. government on Friday is expected by economists to report the nation's unemployment rate rose to 6.8 percent, the highest in 15 years, in November.

In addition to the weakening economy, persistent drops in home prices and rising delinquencies in prime mortgages suggest foreclosures will trend higher without more significant intervention, the analysts said.

Programs to offer troubled borrowers mortgages with easier terms could cut foreclosures, but loan modification programs are still "generally timid," they said. However, a scenario where half the loans facing foreclosure are modified, and 40 percent of those default again, total foreclosures could fall to 6.3 million from 9 million, they said.

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