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The Financials ETF [XLF
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] closed higher ahead of earnings from 4 big banks later this week. It seems investors have grown more and more optimistic about the space as demonstrated last week when Goldman raised their rating on big banks to "attractive" from "neutral" citing a dramatic improvement in earnings power.
Considering most investors agree that the market can’t push higher without the financials, we may be nearing an inflection point. By Friday the Street will find itself awash in results from some of the nation’s largest banks. Take a look:
Financial Earnings This Week
Wednesday: JPMorgan [JPM
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]
Thursday: Citigroup [C
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],
Thursday: Goldman Sachs [GS
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Friday: Bank of America [BAC
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]
What should you expect and how will the market react?
For insights we turn to one of the most widely followed bank analysts we know - Fox-Pitt Kelton analyst David Trone.
And contrary to so many others, he’s not terribly bullish, at least when it comes to market reaction.
Although he thinks JPMorgan is a high quality name and Goldman should have a great quarter, the stocks have already rallied in anticipation of that. "Even if they put up good results I expect there will be selling on the news," Trone says.
To get these stocks higher we’d need to see something that changes thinking about normalized earnings. In order for Goldman to continue higher "we need to see something with a 5-handle."
Right now all the banks (mentioned above) are already trading on the market’s view of what they will earn in a sunnier year such as 2011.
"I don’t think there’s a lot of upside left," he concludes.
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On Friday we listed all the different ways the Fast Money traders suggested gaming bank earnings. We though you might like to see that list again.
Strategy Session with the Fast Money traders
I bought some October calls in Bank of America [BAC
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], reveals Karen Finerman. I like seeing earnings from JPM and Citi before my trade fires.
I’m bullish JPMorgan, adds Joe Terranova. That’s a stock I like for the long-term.
I’m very bearish on Citi [C
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], adds Tim Seymour, because they had to sell Phibro one of their best units.
I'm watching trends in the XLF [XLF
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] as a proxy for the sector, says Bill Strazzullo on Fast Money's Halftime Report. It seems to me this ETF is breaking higher and that suggests there’s good upside here in this space.
I’m watching Goldman [GS
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], adds Steve Grasso. Typically they shock investors with the amount of money they make and how they make it.
I’m seeing put buying in the sector, reveals Scott Nations. But that’s because it’s a bifurcated market. Some of the names are fantastic and other such as Wells [WFC
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] and Citi [C
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] just can’t seem to get any traction.
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Trader disclosure: On October 12, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (BTU), (MSFT), (NUE); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (F), (MGM), (MSFT), (BX), (POT); Seymour Owns Shares Of Gazprom; Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC), (BAC) Calls, (BAC) Call Spreads, (BAC) Preferred; Finerman Owns (BAC), (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (CSCO), (MSFT), (TGT), (WMT), (YUM), (PLCE); Finerman's Firm Owns (WLP) Calls; Finerman's Firm Owns (UNH) Calls; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (IWM), (UNG), (USO); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred; Terranova Owns (JPM), (NOV); Terranova Is Short (GRMN); Terranova Is Short (CCL); Terranova Owns Dec. 2009 Gold Futures; Terranova Owns Dec. 2009 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Owns Dec. 2010 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Works For (VRTS)
For JoeTerranova:
Terranova Is Chief Market Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLY)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CAL)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CLB)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DLR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EXR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLI)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLB)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBA)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (UA)
For Craig Berger
FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (ONNN)
FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (INTC)
FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (BRCM)
FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (NVDA)
FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (MRVL)
FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (LLTC)
FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (MXIM)
FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (ATML)
FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (LSI)
FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (SLAB)
FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (MSCC)
FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (QCOM)
FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (ATHR)
For David Trone
FPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (GS) In Next 3 Months
FPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (MS) In Next 3 Months
FPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (JPM) In Next 3 Months
FPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (C) In Next 3 Months
For Christa Quarles
Thomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Managed Or Co-Managed A Public Offering Of Securities For (GOOG) In Past 12 Months
Thomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Received Investment Banking Compensation From (GOOG) In Past 12 Months
Thomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Comensation From (GOOG) In Next 3 Months
Thomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Provided Or Is Providing Investment Banking Services To (GOOG) In Past 12 Months
Thomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Comensation From (YHOO) In Next 3 Months
Thomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Provided Or Is Providing Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related Services To And/Or Has Agreed To Provide Services Or Has A Client Relationship With (YHOO)
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes