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Steepest Black Friday Discounts, Revealed

Published: Wednesday, 25 Nov 2009 | 5:34 PM ET

Text Size

By: Lee Brodie
Producer

We know how chaotic shopping can be this time of year, especially when you're shopping for stocks.

So to make things a little easier on you, we've compiled a list who's offering the sharpest Black Friday discounts -- and everything else you needs to know to trade retail this holiday season.

It's all below. Hope you find some Black Friday bargains!

Jefferies analyst Dan Binder

I think on Black Friday you’re going to see consumers coming out in droves for Black Friday sales. And following is where they will find the best discounts.

Black Friday 2009: Discount Wars
Average Discounts From Regular Price
JC Penney                59%
Kohl's                      53.7%
Wal-Mart                42.9%
Target                    41.6%
Best Buy                36.7%
Home Depot            28.4%
Source: Jefferies & Company

Of all the names mentioned above I think Best Buy [BBY Loading... () ] is the best name. The competition is out of the picture (with Circuit City gone) and they’ve got the Windows 7 release which will likely drive PC sales, as well as many other catalysts.

JP Morgan analyst Charles Grom

Into Black Friday, I’d take a balanced barbell approach, says JP Morgan analyst Charles Grom. What I mean by that is own a Walmart [WMT Loading... () ] and a Dollar Tree [DLTR Loading... () ]. But on the other side of that I’d also own Kohl’s [KSS Loading... () ] and Macy’s [M Loading... () ]. The department stores have come out of favor and I think the smart trade is to go long those stocks into Black Friday.

In the luxury space I’d be cautious, he adds. I think shoppers are waiting for big sales. I was bullish on Saks [SKS Loading... () ] but got out at $7. Right now, I’d point investors to the mid-teir deparment stores.

Citi retail analyst Kimberly Greenberger

We do think it’s going to be a blue box Christmas, says Citi retail analyst Kimberly Greenberger on Monday's Fast Money. The single highest correlating factor to spending among high end consumers is stock market returns with a 3-6 month lag. Given the rally we’ve had off the march lows I think that bodes well for a high end holiday.

The acceleration that we’re likely to see in the sales trends will likely be more dramatic on the high end. As a result I really like Tiffany [TIF Loading... () ]. And if you’re looking for a stock to avoid, I’d avoid Aeropostale [ARO Loading... () ], adds Greenberger.

Patty Edwards of Storehouse

The consumer is still looking for value, says Patty Edwards on Tuesday’s Halftime Report. I’d play retail either with companies that offer consumers value, like Dollar Tree [DLTR Loading... () ] or with the best operators. And in my opinion that’s J Crew [JCG Loading... () ].

Pete Najarian

In the space I’m watching Nordstrom [JWN Loading... () ] as well as TJX [TJX Loading... () ], adds the Pit Boss. Both have climbed but I think they both continue to work.

Joe Terranova

I like Gap [GPS Loading... () ], says the Liquidator. And don’t forget Amazon[AMZN Loading... () ], as well as Visa [V Loading... () ] and Mastercard [MA Loading... () ].

Karen Finerman

My long trade is Children’s Place [PLCE Loading... () ], adds the Chairwoman. I also like Walmart [WMT Loading... () ] and Target [TGT Loading... () ] .

Tim Seymour

I like Gap [GPS Loading... () ], says the Ambassador, for its Old Navy brand.

What do you think? We want to know!

FAST MONEY // Latest Rapid Recap

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Trader disclosure: On Nov. 25th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (EEM), (FXI), (INTC); Terranova Owns (SU), (GOOG), (AAPL); Terranova Owns (UNG) April 2010 Calls; Terranova Owns Gold Futures; Terranova Owns Nat Gas Futures; Grasso Owns (AAPL), (BA), (BAC), (C), (COST), (PFE), (V), (WMT)

For Steve Grasso
Stuart Frankel Owns (NYX)
Stuart Frankel Owns (SDS)
Stuart Frankel Owns (TBT)
Stuart Frankel Owns (PDE)
Stuart Frankel Is Short (QQQQ)

For Dan Binder
Jefferies Has Received Compensation From (BJ)
Jefferies Makes A Market in (COST)
Jefferies Has Received Compensation From (LOW)
Jefferies Makes A Market In (SPLS)
Jefferies Has Received Compensation From (USTR)

Trader disclosure: On November 24th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (EEM), (FXI), (INTC), (VIP), (F); Finerman's Firm Owns (AAPL), (PLCE), (MSFT), (NOK), (WMT), (FLS), (PDE), (RIG), (TGT); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (IWM), (MDY), (SPY), (USO), (UNG); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred, (BAC), (BAC) Calls; Finerman Owns (BAC) Preferred, (BAC); Najarian Owns (AAPL) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (BRCD) & (BRCD) Calls; Najarian Owns (CLF) & (CLF) Calls; Najarian Owns (INTC) & Short (INTC) Calls; Najarian Owns (DELL) Calls; Najarian Owns (DE) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (FCX) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (INTC) & (INTC) Calls; Najarian Owns (LAZ) & short (LAZ) Calls; Najarian Owns (BKS) Puts

For Charles Grom
JP Morgan Has Investment Banking Rel. With (M)
JP Morgan Has Investment Banking Rel. With (KSS)
JP Morgan Has Investment Banking Rel. With (JCP)
JP Morgan Has Investment Banking Rel. With (SKS)
JP Morgan Has Investment Banking Rel. With (COST)
JP Morgan Has Investment Banking Rel. With (TGT)
JP Morgan Has Investment Banking Rel. With (WMT)
JP Morgan Owns (SKS)

For Mark Mahaney
Citi Has Received Compensation From (AMZN)
Citi Has Received Compensation From (EBAY)
Citi Has Had (AMZN) As A Client In Past 12 Months
Citi Is A Market Maker In Shares of (AMZN)
Citi Is A Market Maker In Shares of (EBAY)

For Peter Schiff
Schiff Owns Gold

For Patty Edwards
Edwards Owns (WMT)

Trader disclosure: On November 23rd, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Terranova Owns (POT), (GOOG), (AAPL); Terranova Owns (UNG) April 2010 Calls; Finerman's Firm Owns (PLCE), (MSFT), (NOK), (WMT), (FLS), (PDE), (RIG), (TGT), (CDY), (ACL); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (IWM), (MDY), (SPY), (USO), (UNG), (KFT); Finerman's Firm Owns (PEET) Call; Finerman's Firm Owns (AAPL); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred, (BAC), (BAC) Calls; Finerman Owns (BAC) Preferred, (BAC); Najarian Owns (AAPL) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (DELL) Calls; Najarian Owns (DE) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (FCX) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (INTC) & (INTC) Calls; Najarian Owns (LAZ) & short (LAZ) Calls; Najarian Owns (SEED) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (CLF) & Short (CLF) Calls

J. Najarian Owns (LOW)
J. Najarian Owns (UNH)

For Kimberly Greenberger
Citi Owns (ANF)
Citi Owns (AEO)
Citi Has Received Compensation from (AEO)
Citi Has Received Compensation from (ANF)
Citi Has Received Compensation from (JCG)
Citi Has Received Compensation from (URBN)
Citi Has Received Compensation from (LTD)
Citi Has Had (GPS) As A Client in Past 12 Months
Citi Has Had (TJX) As A Client in Past 12 Months
Citi Is A Market Maker in Securities of (HOTT)
Citi Is A Market Maker in Securities of (URBN)
Citi Is A Market Maker in Securities of (PLACE)
A Suit Filed by (AEO) Against Citi is Currently Pending in Federal Court

CNBC.com with wires

Topics:Stock Market | Stock Picks

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