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EDITOR
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Week Ahead: Jobs Report Could Signal Rocky September
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CNBC Executive Editor
The final days of summer could bring more disappointing manufacturing and employment data, setting the stage for a choppy September.
Doug Cliggott
Credit Suisse
Even with a rally Friday, the Dow and S&P 500 were down about 0.7 percent in the past week, and are now down more than 3 percent for the month of August. Treasury yields continued to slide, with the 10-year touching a 19-month low yield of 2.418 mid-week, before rising to 2.652 percent Friday.
"History says you don't want to stick your head out there. If you're going to rent a boat and go sailing in the Caribbean, you don't do it in the hurricane season, and that's kind of what the equities market is like. We're entering hurricane season. Be careful," said Doug Cliggott, U.S. Equity Strategist at Credit Suisse.
Economic data in the past week painted a dismal picture of the housing market and showed weaker orders for finished goods. The data in the coming week includes the ISM manufacturing survey Wednesday and the August jobs report on Friday. There is also data that will give a good look at the consumer, including consumer confidence Tuesday, car sales Wednesday and monthly chain store sales Thursday.
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Tech bellwether Intel [INTC
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] told a similar story about business spending Friday, when it warned its revenues would be lower than previously expected. Stocks Friday were higher even after the Intel news, and traders said the big chip maker, which closed higher, was beaten down ahead of the news. The market moved moved higher in a short covering rally after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled the Fed would do what it takes to keep the recovery from failing.
"Intel's preannouncement is indicative of the PC replacement cycle, which is an indication of business spending. It's not good news," said Barry Knapp, Barclay's Capital head of equities portfolio strategy. "What you're hearing from Intel, Cisco [CSCO
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] or durable goods is not business spending remaining strong."
Knapp expects to hear more technology companies preannounce after the Labor Day weekend. "I think there's a chance September could be pretty ugly, in which case I was thinking we could go down and retest the lows at 1010 (on the S&P 500). It may be we go below 1000," he said.
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Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
