Twitter's initial public offering (IPO) is generating high levels of interest among traders in the so-called grey market, where a company's shares are traded before their official listing,
But that's no guarantee it'll avoid repeating Facebook's infamous first-day flop.
Twitter, which announced plans for its high-profile IPO in a tweet last week, is expected to raise around $10 billion, but early trading in derivatives linked to the shares suggests its valuation could be as high as $13.15 billion.
The "grey market" can be a good gauge of appetite for a company's shares before they are launched on the stock market, and usually consists of contracts for difference (CFDs), derivatives which pay out based on how close they come to the final figure.
Traders are buying CFDs in Twitter with a $15.04 billion to $16.04 billion valuation spread from spreadbetters ETX Capital, who reported "high levels" of buying interest.
(Read more: Saudi prince to hold on to Twitter stake)
Twitter's high-profile IPO was announced in a tweet last week and is the most hotly anticipated since Facebook, the last major social network to launch itself on the market. Investors and analysts are keen that the company learns from Facebook's disappointing IPO in May 2012, where the company's shares lost half their value following their launch.
The keen interest in Twitter CFDs currently may not be a totally reliable indicator for the social media site's share listing.
Rival player Facebook had the "busiest grey market," said David Jones, chief market strategist at IG. He noted Facebook's market capitalization was estimated at $70 billion before its listing, while its grey-market CFD trading indicated it would open around $100 billion.