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The S&P is up 5.3 percent in October—a substantial move, yes—complementing the already strong move during the year. I, along with many others, do not expect that we will see any change in policy or plans on Wednesday when we get the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes. The two-day meeting begins today and ends with the "presentation of facts" tomorrow. All eyes will focus on potential revisions in their monetary policy statement. What words did they change? Does it change the meaning of the current policy? Traders will listen intently to see if they can read "between the lines." If September is any indicator, we are likely to see them stay away from any talk of "tapering" anytime soon. After what happened when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested a possible dialing back of the Fed's easy money policy during the May meeting, I doubt he wants to reignite that flame right now. Remember the immediate chaos? The markets didn't respond well at all.
(Read more: QE expected to continue in 2014: CNBC survey)
I suspect that Bernanke will focus on the government shutdown and how the picture has changed as a result. Watch to see if he indicates that "it may take months before our economy can recover from these debt ceiling arguments/shutdown."
If so, then this is the signal that talk of tapering is off the table until well into 2014. Recall there are four deadlines ahead: December 17 is when a small group of legislators will try to craft a broader budget deal. This is NOT the same group that failed during last year's "supercommittee" agenda. January 15 and February 7 are the other key dates before we run out of money again. In the middle of all that, the Fed will be changing hands so a change in policy is very unlikely then.
The recent government shutdown has given the Fed the cover to keep printing money. In fact, continued weak/mixed economic data will only solidify the Fed's stance.
(Read more: Data will be the key as Fed meeting starts)
I continue to suspect that we remain entrenched in a tight trading pattern, with S&P 1,760 representing the high and 1,730 being support, as the market consolidates and allows the fundamentals to catch up to prices. In the end, we may see one last push higher as the bears capitulate into year end and become buyers. It is here that the bulls will take advantage and sell stock and this will be the turning point.