— This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on October 29, Tuesday.
Welcome to the CNBC Business Daily. I'm Chloe Cho in Singapore.
Data out this morning shows the Japanese are spending big ahead of an expected sales tax hike next April. Household spending rose 3.7 percent in September, the strongest pace in six months. Overall retail sales rose 3.1 percent driven by spending on luxury goods, food and cars. The gains in spending boosted by a healthier labour market, with the jobless rate falling to 4 percent.
It seems that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's package of aggressive stimulus measures is paying off. Here's what one guest had to say:
[Soundbyte on tape by Takuji Okubo, Principal & Chief Economist, Japan Macro Advisors] Abenomics is making pretty good progress so far. Monetary easing is working quite well to weaken yen. Fiscal spending is making Japan boom in the current econ. However, there is a third arrow remaining, and we haven't see much progress in that. We need that to happen for Japan to keep on growing. What we saw today was 3% growth y/y. That is a great number. Japan has not seen any inflation yet, in real terms. All the price rises are coming from energy. Retail prices are actually not rising at all. So given that 3% y/y is a pretty good number, but it should get even better toward the end of the fiscal year.
Today's data also unlikely to sway the Bank of Japan from holding its monetary policy steady when it meets later this week. And that could be supportive of the dollar-yen cross. Here's what one forex analyst had to say:
[Soundbyte on tape by Sean Callow, Senior Currency Strategist, Westpac Bank] These monthly numbers have not been having an impact on the yen as the BoJ is so set in its policy stance at this point. They've got their semi-annual meeting this week, where you'd expect them to be firmly on hold. If it's not going to change the BoJ's mind in terms of policy sending, then you wouldn't want to be moving the USD/JPY too far. And that's a very volatile one, that year on year - as you see the scale of that miss. The JPY probably isn't going to be punished for any further fiscal slippage from this stimullus. So long as it's taken okay by the Nikkei, then I think investors will keep that USD/JPY-Nikkei correlation intact. For the most part, we're still looking for yen weakness as bond inflows resume. Yen crosses we see as a buy on dips, but USD/JPY short term, they're both going to be weak, so it's probably range bound.
And that is your CNBC Business Daily. I'm Chloe Cho, thanks for watching.