While tight oil output is set to soar in the next few years, the Paris-based agency said the world was not "on the cusp of a new era of oil abundance."
By the mid-2020s, non-OPEC production will fall back and countries in the Middle East—home to core members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries—will provide most of the increase in global supply.
Birol said it was essential that investments continue to be made in the plentiful, low-cost resources of the Middle East in order to meet growing demand from Asia.
"The Middle East is and will remain the heart of the global oil industry for many years to come," he said.
"Giving the wrong signal to Middle East producers may well delay investment. If we want Middle East oil in 2020, the investments need to be made by now."
Rising U.S. tight oil production is for now helping to meet growing demand, which the IEA forecasts will reach 101 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2035, a rise of 14 million bpd and up slightly from 99.7 million bpd expected last year.
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"Shale oil is very good news for the United States and for the world, but the demand is in Asia," Birol said. "First China, and then after 2020 driven by India. Therefore we need Middle East oil for the Asian demand growth."
China is due to overtake the United States as the largest oil-consuming country and Middle East oil consumption is expected to surpass that of the European Union, both around 2030, the IEA said.
India is forecast to become the largest single source of global oil demand growth after 2020.
The share of the United States in global energy-intensive industries—chemicals, aluminium, cement, iron, steel, paper, glass and oil refining—will increase slightly thanks to cheaper energy. By contrast, the EU and Japan will lose one third of their current share.
The IEA also said that up to 10 million bpd of global refining capacity was at risk as global refining centers were relocating closer to Asia.