As for the government retail sales report, Pierpont Chief Economist Stephen Stanley said he expects a gain of 0.1 percent, excluding autos and flat, for the headline. "I think retail sales are going to be lackluster, pretty close to flat," he said. "Yesterday's productivity numbers show the compensation numbers aren't growing very fast. No wonder people aren't spending much."
Stanley also said existing home sales Wednesday could be soft. "I think they'll be down quite a bit. The consensus has them close to flat, but I think we could be down closer to five million. The mortgage rate rising is a part of it but I think the bigger issue in terms of affordability is just how fast prices have risen."
The troop of Fed speakers in the coming week will also be important for the markets as traders attempt to assess when the Fed might wind down its $85 billion monthly bond purchases. Stanley said Yellen has made it clear it would not be soon, and he expects to hear the usual disagreement among Fed officials over when the program should end when they speak this week.
But Bernanke will probably not make much news in terms of policy, when he speaks Tuesday evening, he said.
"I get the sense that he's already stepping back. Since the press conference, he's said very little, if any policy reference," Stanley said. "I think he's trying to ease the transition by fading into the background and allowing her to move into the foreground. He may say stuff that the markets pay attention to, but I doubt he sends a policy signal."
Earnings: Tyson Foods, Salesforce.com, Urban Outfitters, UGI, Amerigas Partners, Brocade, Semtech
9:00 a.m. Treasury international capital flows
10:00 a.m. NAHB survey
12:15 p.m. New York Fed President William Dudley on regional economy
1:30 p.m. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser on economic outlook and monetary policy
5:45 p.m. Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota on "too big to fail"
Earnings: Home Depot, Medtronic, Best Buy, Campbell Soup, Dick's Sporting Goods, TJX, Trina Solar, Valspar, La-Z-Boy
8:30 a.m. Employment cost index
2:15 p.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans
7:00 p.m. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the annual National Association of Business Economists dinner
Earnings: Deere, J.C. Penney, Green Mountain, Lowe's, Williams-Sonoma, Staples, JM Smuckers, ADT, L Brands, Jack in the Box
7:00 a.m. Mortgage applications
8:30 a.m. CPI
8:30 a.m. Retail sales
10:00 a.m. Business inventories
10:00 a.m. Existing home sales
10:00 a.m. New York Fed's Dudley on for-profit institutions in higher education
12:10 p.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on economy and monetary policy
2:00 p.m. FOMC minutes
Earnings: Target, Dollar Tree, Abercrombie and Fitch, The Buckle, Gap, Autodesk, Pandora, Berry Plastics, Fresh Market, Splunk, Gamestop, Ross Stores
8:30 a.m. Jobless claims
8:30 a.m. PPI
8:58 a.m. Manufacturing PMI
9:45 a.m. Fed Gov. Jerome Powell on over-the-counter derivatives
10:00 a.m. Philadelphia Fed survey
10:00 a.m. Leading indicators
12:30 p.m. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker on economy
12:50 p.m. St. Louis Fed's Bullard on economy and monetary policy
4:30 p.m. Money supply
4:30 p.m. Fed's balance sheet
Earnings: Foot Locker, Ann, PetSmart
08:40 a.m. Kansas City Fed President Esther George on banking supervision, Paris
10:00 a.m. JOLTS job openings survey
11:00 a.m. Kansas City Fed survey
12:15 p.m. Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo
—By CNBC's Patti Domm. Follow here on Twitter @pattidomm.