"First, the magnitude of the move next year should be lower than in 2013," the Barclays strategists wrote in a note. "Second, data are likely to be stronger in most developed countries next year and should be a large part of why rates rise. Most importantly, rates should move higher despite significant obstacles. In the U.S., the Fed will likely provide forward guidance to prevent rates from rising too far when it tapers."
Barclays strategists say they now expect the Fed to begin to slow its bond purchases in March. "After years of plumbing new lows in yields, the U.S. bond market finally started selling off in earnest this year. The catalyst has not been stronger GDP [gross domestic product] numbers, which remain stuck around 2 percent. Instead, there are two inter-related reasons," they noted. "One is the rapid improvement in the labor market even in the face of mediocre GDP growth. The other is the Fed emphasizing that labor market improvements will play a larger role in driving monetary policy."
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Rosenberg said it's possible the 10-year yield could overshoot, but it would likely to be contained based on his view.
"The core of my outlook is the dependency of the economy on financial market conditions, so this is exactly what the Fed has been talking about since the 'taper tantrum' of July," he said. "Financial market conditions need to remain easy to support the economic recovery. 'Financial markets conditions' is code word for stocks, bonds and importantly mortgage rates."
Rosenberg said if the bond market overshoots, and rates rise too high, too fast. "That's only going to sow the seeds of its own demise," he said.
"What has supported the economy are three main things—interest rate sensitive spending; it's housing and it's wealth effect induced spending," he said. "They're all highly dependent on easy financial market conditions." Rosenberg said there are limits to how high interest rates can go in an economy dependent on this type of growth.
Traders have also said a quick jump in yields could create a selloff in stocks, which could act as a catalyst to bring rates back down.
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There is debate over whether the motors for the economy can change in the coming year. "We're waiting to see business spending. We're waiting to see cap ex. We're waiting to see income growth. These are missing in the economy," Rosenberg said.
Rosenberg said he expects the Fed to wait for more data before tapering its bond buying, so the December meeting is not a likely time for it to act.
As for the timing of the Fed's move to taper bond buying, in a survey of primary dealers Reuters found that most expect the wind down of bond purchases to begin in January or March. Of 18 of the 21 dealers surveyed, eight expect tapering to begin in March and five expect it in January. There were four that said it could start in December or January.
—By CNBC's Patti Domm. Follow here on Twitter @pattidomm.