Did Icahn even do anything wrong?
Icahn wasn't an insider of Clorox and even if he tipped off his friends of what stock he was going to buy—is that illegal? That's not clear yet. Even if Icahn activity is considered underhanded, I think it'll be extremely hard to get him. He's like Steve Cohen: You may think something's not quite right there, but he's insulated himself from wrongdoing.
Billy Walters is probably the most at risk here. Unfortunately for him, just by the mere fact of residing in Las Vegas, the general public discounts two morality points from your character. He also has a past history of charges in illegal gambling and money laundering. If he knew of Icahn's plan to tender the company (even though Icahn never did) and he profited from the information and passed it along, he might be more at risk. But I would think someone like Bill has been around the block enough times that he would know how to avoid getting snagged by a wiretap and wouldn't put anything in print.
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"Honey, please hold all my calls unless Martha Stewart is on the line," I can imagine Phil Mickelson saying to his wife. I think he's most at risk for getting caught in the Martha Stewart trap. So far, it appears as if Mickelson is either clueless or playing dumb — which can work up to a point. And I'm sure he's been advised by his lawyers to say nothing. But if the swinging heat lamp is ever pointed at his face, he needs to do the opposite of Martha Stewart. The only wrong move Phil can make right now is to lie. As long as he cooperates with the FBI and tells them exactly how it went down he should be fine.
Did Mickelson and Walters act on insider information? It would take me about fifteen minutes to answer that. All you'd need to do is look at their trading history. It's very similar to card counting in Blackjack. It's simple: When the count is high, meaning the odds are in the bettors favor, you increase your bet. The casinos monitor every gambler to make sure they aren't increasing their bets only during advantageous decks. If Mickelson and Walters trading history suggests they took an abnormally larger bet than their usual trades it would suggest they were acting on a tip.
But here's the thing: That doesn't make them guilty. And, it doesn't necessarily lead back to Icahn.
Walters seems like he'd swallow a cyanide pill before talking. And Mickelson? He may be a pro golfer, but he's an amateur at the Wall Street game. If he got caught, like Martha Stewart, it would be his ego that took him down. The question is: Do the Feds care about him enough without Icahn?