You have to admit this year is not exactly shaping up like the playbook in December. Among 2014's biggest surprises:
1) 10 year Treasury still at 2.50 percent. Almost no one thought it would be here as we start July. There is demand for a safe haven, and a belief among many that the U.S. economy would not show the growth anticipated, has so far proved to be right.
2) Utilities is the leading sector in the S&P 500, up 16.5 percent year-to-date. Utilities are such a small sector as to be almost irrelevant in the S&P 500, but volumes were huge as investors flocked to yield names when rates stayed contained.
3) Second quarter volume, volatility fell off. It's not the summer doldrums because volume and volatility dropped off in May.
S&P sector, and percentage gain (or loss)
Utiltiites 16 percent
Energy 11 percent
Healthcare 10 percent
Tech 7 percent
Consumer Discretionary (1 percent)
One final point: buybacks have been a major factor in the 2014 stock move. Factset reports that quarterly Q1 buybacks grew 50 percent year-over-year: $154.5 billion in Q1 alone.
As part of CNBC's 25th Anniversary, we are devoting time today to where the markets will be 25 years from now. Check out my predictions on7 huge changes coming from stock trading. Digital avatars! Different share types for the same company, new ways for companies to come to market, and how true 24-hour trading will be commonplace.
--By CNBC;s Bob Pisani