"Long-term rates are supported by the feeling if the Fed hikes, they won't hike that much," said Goncalves. Global competition is also a factor supporting the U.S. long end, with U.S. Treasuries looking more attractive than those sovereigns in Europe or Japan.
But he does not expect the Fed to put a chill into markets by revealing anything new on its exit strategy until at least September, when it closes in on the end of tapering its bond buying program.
"Why upset the apple cart? The Fed does not want to be the source of volatility. When they come to hiking, they're going to do it in a methodical way, and the only thing that could force their hand is the inflation thing," he said.
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"The minutes are always going to include a spectrum of thoughts across the committee. They're going to talk about inflation. It could come down to reading between the lines. I think we learned whatever we need to learn from the June meeting on that day," he said.
Goncalves said the bond market rally can't be attributed to any one thing. "Could it be a number of things happening at once? It could be. Stocks were down today. It could just be the standard relationship. That's as good a reason as anything else," he said.
Stocks were whipped Tuesday, with the high-beta and momentum names in the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq leading the selloff. The Dow was down 117 at 16,906, and the S&P was off 13 at 1963. The VIX jumped more than 5 percent to 11.98, a near 15 percent gain in two sessions but is still trading at a very low level.
"Starting next week when we get into the heart of things, earnings will be the driver," Hogan said. "You had a strange confluence of events that took us to new highs last week – not many players on field. You had the new quarter, new half."
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The first major earnings out of the gate Tuesday afternoon was a positive, with Alcoa beating estimates on the top and bottom line. Its stock gained in afterhours trade.
Traders said stocks Tuesday reacted to concerns that the Israeli air assault in the Gaza could escalate. Comments from Wal-Mart that jobs gains weren't fueling consumer spending also was a negative for sentiment.