Even if the Bank of Japan does not step up stimulus, strategists say, it remains firmly in easy mode, and that could still trigger a weak yen, when you compare that policy to the Federal Reserve's path.
"I think the main driver of the yen will be U.S. monetary policy, and a continued drift higher in inflation expectations in japan. Even without more action from the BOJ, real rates are going down when inflation expectations increase. I think this, combined with different signals from the Fed, probably in Q4, will see USD/JPY test highs around 105," according to Jens Nordvig, global head of foreign exchange strategy at Nomura.
The Fed is increasingly pulling back on its unprecedented stimulus (tapering), and there's a growing chorus of economists, inside and outside the Fed, talking about higher interest rates. That difference in policy stance holds the key to the yen's move.
"I still think there's some upside for U.S. dollar versus the Japanese yen, but it will really need to come from higher interest rate expectations in the U.S. and an end to the Fed balance sheet expansion," said Robert Sinche, global strategist at Pierpont Securities.
"I still think dollar-yen is heading to 105-110 trading range by later 2014, but driven by Fed policy not BOJ."
So far, low interest rates in the U.S. and a surprisingly weak GDP number in the first quarter have kept pressure on the dollar versus the yen, one of the pairs most correlated to the move in interest rates, especially at the short end of the yield curve.
But that could change as the U.S. continues to show improvement in the labor market, inflation creeps higher and consumers pick up their spending.
Read MoreAre investors losing patience with BOJ?
Bottom line, when it comes to the dollar against the yen, strategists say the stage is set for a weaker yen, but it's certainly not going to be on a one-way ticket lower, as there was last year.
—By CNBC's Sara Eisen