For now, SocGen expects higher wage and inflation data to lead markets to re-price Federal Reserve action, pushing the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield up to 3.25 percent by year-end, from around 2.48 percent now.
"The question is whether the summer data could trigger an earlier and sharper re-pricing of Fed policy tightening than we expect," Marcussen said, noting the bank expects another strong jobs report ahead, while earnings appear to be picking up.
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Among other economic risks, China remains at the top of SocGen's "black swan chart."
"Weak property price data released Friday showing property prices falling in 55 out of 70 cities in May was a reminder of the Achilles' heel of the Chinese economy," she said. "A hard landing could come about from a dry-up in property investment, which accounts for close to 15 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)."
The bank assigns a 30 percent probability to a hard-landing scenario, but that's not likely to come soon enough to ruin any summer vacations, she noted.
The second-place economic black swan is the risk of "lowflation" in Europe, but that also isn't likely to wing in near-term, SocGen said.
While the bank's base-case scenario is for Europe to exit lowflation in 2014's second half, "the combination of recent weak data and too little structural reform too late have pushed us to increase the risk of a prolonged lowflation scenario" to a 25 percent probability, just below the likelihood of a China hard-landing, she noted.
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Another key risk is widespread expectations that global central banks will rush to the rescue if markets wobble, she said.
"In the case of the U.S. and the U.K., it would take a very significant disappointment on the real economy to trigger further policy stimulus," she said. "A correction in risk premia is unlikely to be seen as a sufficient condition for further policy easing."
Assets underpinned by liquidity rather than strong fundamentals could be in danger of a sharp correction, she said.