Amid reports that Russia may be open to de-escalating the crisis in Ukraine, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer told CNBC on Friday that he's not buying it.
"I think frankly Russia-Ukraine is tending negative" with Moscow massing troops on the border, he said. "There's a greater likelihood of direct Russian intervention now than it has been at any point in this crisis. I would not be faked by this news now."
"The other thing coming out of Russia is [President Vladimir Putin] with an emergency meeting that he's trying to push to declare concern about a humanitarian crisis unfolding in [Ukraine]," Bremmer said on "Squawk Box."
"[But] if it turns out that the Russian separatists on the ground in southeast Ukraine look like they're about to be routed," he argued, "then I think Putin would react. He would probably call them peacekeepers."
Invading Ukraine is not "Plan A" for Putin because it would be unpopular in Russia and in the West, Bremmer said.
On Thursday, Russia retaliated for sanctions over the crisis by banning most food imports from the West, dealing a blow to Europe that also takes aim at hurting the U.S., Canada and Australia.
Bremmer said it appears Putin "wants to play the long game."