One reason mainlanders may not be changing their travel plans: they may simply be unaware of the protests due to media blackouts and censorship.
But it could prove difficult to discern whether any decline in mainland arrivals or changes in their spending habits are due to the protests or part of a broader trend.
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"Mainland tourists' arrivals have already slowed since the first quarter of 2014 and a further decline may be in store in the near term," UOB KayHian said in a note Tuesday. "Mainland visitor arrivals could trend even lower than in May, in view of the Occupy Central Movement."
Many analysts -- including UOB KayHian -- are concerned over whether the protests in the key Central shopping district will hurt retail sales during the Golden Week holiday, but they also note another trend may be in play: Chinese tourists have more travel options than just Hong Kong.
For example, cosmetics retailer Sa Sa has said that the significance of Golden Week has been declining as travelers head to other countries, UOB KayHian noted.
ANZ estimates that the protests have cost Hong Kong's retailers around 2.2 billion Hong Kong dollars ($280 million), or around 6 percent of the month's total retail sales. But the impact varies by type of retailer, with sales of luxury goods, cosmetics and durables hard hit, while convenience store and supermarket sales should hold up, said Raymond Yeung, senior economist at ANZ, in a note Friday.
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"The protests have not resulted in a lot of cancelations," Ben Cavender, an analyst at China Market Research Group, said via email. "Over the long term, though, I think we are going to see mainland travelers favoring more and more destinations other than Hong Kong simply because they have more options available to them and are looking for more travel options associated with life experiences like scuba diving, or hiking, or fine dining and this will draw them to countries beyond Hong Kong."
Hong Kong's hotels aren't discounting rooms any more than they were at this time last year, said one major online travel agency, which declined to be named. But it noted that while Hong Kong was the most searched city on its China website last year, this year it's fallen to the No.4 spot as the territory faces rising competition from other locales.