Stock market looks like ‘a sucker trade’: Trader

US still best house: Trader
US still best house: Trader   

The U.S. stock market increasingly looks like the best house on a worsening global block, but it's far from a no-brainer, RiskReversal.com's Dan Nathan said Monday.

"Yeah, it's still the best, but I think it's a sucker trade, to be very frank with you," he said. "When you think about the dollar and the strength that we've had and you look at the course ECB and the BOJ. They are debasing their currencies. We've gone through this for six years. I think a strong dollar is going to be a massive headwind for large U.S. multinationals."

New intraday records were set in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as well as the S&P 500, before stocks closed slightly lower. The slide in stocks comes after Japan announced economic stimulus measures that sent the market to fresh highs all-time on Friday.

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On CNBC's "Fast Money," Nathan said he wasn't banking on what the European Central Bank might do... Some experts expect the central bank to announce some kind of monetary stimulus plan on Thursday.

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
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Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

"I don't really care what the ECB does or doesn't do," he added. "Let's see that jobs data."

Brian Kelly of Brian Kelly Capital, who likened Japan's move to a Bear Stearns event, explained why he wasn't cheering a strengthening U.S. dollar.

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"There's good deflation, which for you and me means we can buy a BMW cheaper than we could," he said. "But then there's bad deflation. The problem with bad deflation is people say, 'Well, why am I buying a Hyundai? Why don't I wait a month or two and wait until demand gets sacked?' So, that's the problem with a very strong dollar, and that's the problem with the BOJ.

"It shoots deflation around the world, and you end up in a bad deflationary spiral."

Kelly's trade: "You buy treasuries, TLT, or you buy the U.S. dollar."

Japan's government pension fund last week announced it would boost its investment in the stock market. Kelly said he wasn't betting against that infusion.

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"I'm not short the U.S. stock market, primarily because the money flow's coming in, but in TLT, I get a 2½, 3 percent yield," he said. "That's going to look stellar if the stock market even goes sideways."

Private Advisor Group's Guy Adami also saw a negative sign for the market in the crude oil market after prices declined to $78 per barrel.

"I'm in the camp that the oil market is pointing toward deflation and a slowdown in global growth," he said. "Oil, like the bond market a month or so ago, is trying to tell you something. People will tell you this is positive for the consumer. Maybe, but I think it has far-reaching ramifications that trump that. I think it's actually a bad thing."

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OptionMonster's Pete Najarian said that crude's breakdown was due to short positions being squeezed.

"That to me once again looks like the whole margin-call issue that we've talked about," he added. "I think we are seeing folks that are getting blown out in energy, that were holding on, thought $80 was going to hold. When it didn't today, again, they got hit."

Najarian's play, with the VIX under 15: "Buy protection right now. That allows you to stay in this market. The U.S. is still the best market."

As for stock sectors, Najarian remained bullish: "Financials, chips, pharma," he said.

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