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Why natural gas jumped 8 percent

Natural gas futures flared up Monday, jumping 8 percent, on forecasts of colder late fall weather.

Nymex futures for December climbed to $4.341 per million BTUs, a gain of 32.1 cents.

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"I think what's going on is everything continues to seesaw between the record production levels we've seen this year versus the first cold weather of the year. Everybody's afraid to be short in cold weather," said Derek Salvino, vice president market research at Tradition Energy. "I think it's fear overtaking production."

Salvino said adding to the bullish story for gas were reports of cold weather creating "freeze offs" or shut downs of some natural gas production, including in Texas.

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John Kilduff of Again Capital said he expects to see natural gas rise to $4.50 in the near term.

"The weather forecast keeps getting colder," he said.

Analysts say natural gas could easily reach $5 this winter, but they do not expect higher prices to persist unless there is an extended period of extreme cold.