According to the trade group, 31.6 percent of shoppers said they will wait to see if the deals are worth it before they decide to shop, up 2 percent from last year.
"Consumers today want more than just the discounts they've been showered with since the start of the recession," said Matthew Shay, the federation's president and CEO. "They want exclusive offerings and a good reason to spend their discretionary budgets."
Read MoreBlack Friday 'deals' not so hot after all: Study
A separate report by America's Research Group, released Wednesday, came to a similar conclusion. It found that 60.5 percent consumers who are not planning to shop on Black Friday may change their mind if the Thanksgiving Day newspaper inserts grab their attention. That compares with only 17.6 percent who said so last year.
Overall, NRF's forecast suggest that 140.1 million people "will" or "may" shop on Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday or over the following weekend. That number is relatively in line with 2013's forecast, which predicted 140.3 million people would shop during that time frame.
According to NRF, more than 141 million people ended up shopping during Black Friday weekend 2013.
The NRF polled 6,593 consumers from Nov. 3 to Nov. 10.