After "powerful" price corrections, investors may be tempted to re-establish long positions in commodities, but U.S. dollar strength is likely to sustain the underperformance of commodity benchmark returns when compared to equities, according to strategists at Deutsche Bank.
If Brent crude oil prices fall below $60 a barrel on a sustained basis, it will likely imply significant default risk across U.S. high-yield energy companies, the bank said.
At the same time, the implications of a lower oil price are also "cascading" into the bank's precious metals outlook.
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"On the assumption that OPEC keeps production at current levels, we believe the fundamentals of the oil market will remain weak for at least the next six months," said head of commodities research at Deutsche Bank, Michael Lewis.
"We expect this fundamental backdrop will sustain the pressure on OPEC to cut production either at their next meeting in June 2015 or before," he said.
The bank are also maintaining a bearish outlook for gold, as adjustments in U.S. interest rates, equity and currency markets are all expected to be negative for the precious metal.
"If we are right and euro-dollar falls to 1.15 by the end of next year, then based on gold's historical correlation with the dollar over the past six months, it would imply gold prices falling to as low as $1,075 per troy ounce," said Lewis.
Heading into next year, the analyst community expects gold prices to average around $1,225, and unlike oil price forecasts, analysts have a relatively good track record in terms of predicting gold prices, he said.
"Even so, the possibility that gold prices fall towards $1,000 should not be viewed as extreme in our view since this would bring gold in line with historical valuations," he added.