Greek exit? Not so fast, experts say

Greek economy deteriorating
Greek economy deteriorating   

The situation in Greece will deteriorate significantly over the coming months, but anti-austerity party Syriza
has a big incentive to stay in the euro zone, Eurasia Group's senior European analyst told CNBC on Monday.

The reason: The European Central Bank is set to begin buying $60 billion of government bonds and assets each month as part of program of quantitative easing, and Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras will want a piece of the pie, said Mujtaba Rahman.

"They want to benefit from QE," Rahman said in a "Squawk Box"interview. However, he added that Greece also will have to pay back billions in loans. "So Tsipras is going to have to come to terms with the political and financial reality that I think is going to confront him,"

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Syriza took 36.5 percent of the vote in snap elections on Sunday, a greater percentage than the market had expected. The party has vowed to renegotiate the terms of Greece's bailout with government institutions and investors, a move that some fear could lead to a Greek default and its eventual exit from the euro zone.

Syriza faces further pressure because political turmoil and uncertainty has offset economic progress in Greece during the last two months as elections were announced, Rahman said. Before that, growth was picking up, tax revenues were increasing, and Greece had a primary surplus, he added.

Greece owes more than $350 billion to government institutions and investors. The country also faces a 3.5 billion euro bond coming due this July and another 3 billion in August.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel in particular will be inflexible in renegotiating the terms of Greece's bailout, Rahman said.

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Greece will feel pressure very quickly because it needs a new funding program, Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, told "Squawk Box." There is some room for negotiation in terms of trading off some budget tightening for structural reforms, he said, but Germany and the euro group will stand their ground, and any compromise will be limited.

"I think the pressure on the new government to pull back a little bit here, to find some common ground is going to be pretty intense," Kasman said. "I think there is going to be a pulling back here. We're going to see calmer heads prevail."

Kasman sees the euro area growing about 2 percent over the next year as economies benefit from lower energy prices and a pickup in consumer spending. The euro's fall against the dollar will also provide a tailwind.

Further, market watchers are becoming more confident that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine between the government and pro-Russia rebels will not result in significant energy supply disruptions, he said.

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Edward Campbell, principal at Quantitative Management Associates, agreed that growth will rebound in Europe this year as euro zone countries pump the brakes on deleveraging and austerity programs.

CNBC's Mia Tahara-Stubbs contributed to this article.