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Is a Pats Super Bowl win a bad omen for stocks?

While this is a bit of fantasy marketball, there's an old theory that uses the results of the Super Bowl to predict the performance of the stock market for that year.



New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady hoists the Vince Lombardi Trophy after defeating the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Kyle Terada | USA TODAY Sports | Reuters
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady hoists the Vince Lombardi Trophy after defeating the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX at University of Phoenix Stadium.

Simply put, if an original NFL team wins the big game, the stock market will go up.

If an original AFL team wins, stocks will go down.

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Now, of course, the Super Bowl has nothing to do with the stock market. But in what economists call a "false cause fallacy," the "Super Bowl Theory" has had a better than 80 percent accuracy rate since the big game started 49 bowl games ago.

So how did it shake out this year?

The Seattle Seahawks were an expansion team that spent time in both the NFC and AFC, so actually, there was no ORIGINAL NFL team (like the Chicago Bears or New York Giants) in the championship.

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However, the New England (formerly Boston) Patriots are an original AFL team. So, if the Super Bowl theory holds true, their victory could be a bad omen for Wall Street in 2015.

One of the other popular theories, the "January Barometer" that holds "as January goes, so goes the market," is also pointing lower: The S&P was down 3.1 percent January.

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To be fair, the January Barometer was a fake-out last year, but will it be a head-fake this year as well?

The Super Bowl Theory says no!

Commentary by Ron Insana, a CNBC and MSNBC contributor and the author of four books on Wall Street. He also editor of "Insana's Market Intellgence," available at Marketfy.com. He delivers a daily podcast, "Insana Insights," and a long-form weekly version, both available on iTunes and at roninsana.com. Follow him on Twitter @rinsana.