On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency projected that oil supplies will continue to increase throughout this year. But in fact, oil supplies and prices may be much more volatile over the coming couple years, said Murray Olson, a former geological engineer and co-founder of Calgary-based Northern Blizzard Resources.
"These rapid changes in the price of oil will be a feast-and-famine set of economic consequences for the next few years, with much instability," Olson said.
Read MoreCrude oil volatility indicates a bottom: Traders
For the last nine years, American oil production has only climbed, growing steadily from 5 million barrels per day in 2005 to 8.6 million last year.
Drillers in the top seven U.S. shale plays get 43 to 64 percent of the oil out of their wells in the first three years of pumping, according to research by David Hughes, a fellow at the Post Carbon Institute. In reports published in 2013 and 2014, Hughes has said that the U.S. Energy Information Administration's long-term oil output projections are overly optimistic.
The problem at present is that so-called "tight oil" drillers are cutting capital expenditure budgets, and creating new wells is a front-loaded investment. Nearly all of the costs come in the first two phases: drilling for exploration and hydrofracking, the process of pumping a mixture of water and chemicals into the ground to break up rock formations and release oil and gas.
Read MoreOil layoffs could come back to haunt the industry
The number of rigs drilling new oil and gas wells in the United States has fallen 25 percent from the highs in September. The slide has accelerated in the last two weeks, with another 177 rig reductions, bringing the total number of operating rigs to 1,456.
To be sure, some new wells have been drilled, but producers have delayed fracking them. In its most recent report, the North Dakota Industrial Commission pointed out that 775 drilled wells in the state's Bakken Shale were waiting to be completed at the end of November. While some of the wells were not being completed due to a backlog of work for fracking crews, some companies have made the strategic decision to put off the investment in the second phase, Hughes told CNBC.