Grexit comes down to Germany, not Greece: Analyst

A 'Grexit' impact
A 'Grexit' impact   

The chances of a Greek exit from the euro zone are roughly 20 percent, but the outcome will be driven more by internal constraints in Germany than factors in Greece, Eurasia Group's senior European analyst told CNBC on Tuesday.

"Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, is clearly playing Greece very, very aggressively for a set of domestic reasons. You saw state elections in Hamburg on Sunday. Her party got completely trashed in that context," Mujtaba Rahman said in a "Squawk Box" interview.

Talks between Greece's new government and European finance ministers stalled on Monday. The parties now face a series of deadlines this week to reach an agreement on the terms of the country's bailout.

Read More Greece: The final countdown

In the worst case scenario, negotiators fail to reach an accord on the current bailout program or to forge a pathway toward a new funding plan for Greece, Rahman said. With no backstop, Greece would run into funding challenges in mid-March and would likely see more flight of deposits, which could lead the country to impose capital controls, he added.

However, he does not see that situation playing out.