Why a bond crash can't happen: Nomura’s Goncalves

Despite today's fall, bonds can't crash: Nomura's Goncalves
Despite today's fall, bonds can't crash: Nomura's Goncalves   

Despite the sharp drop in bond prices on Tuesday, fixed-income investors shouldn't sweat the dire warnings that bonds are severely overvalued, says Nomura's head of U.S. rates strategy, George Goncalves.

And while Goncalves does expect Treasury yields to rise over the course of 2015 (pushing bond prices down, given that yield and price move inversely) he says the path is likely to be a slow one, with many obstacles standing in the way of a sudden yield surge.

When it comes to the 10-year yield, Goncalves expects "a gentle grind higher in rates toward around 2.4 [percent] on the year, as long as the economy can handle it," he said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now."

Even with the huge rise in yields on Tuesday, that is still more than an additional quarter of a percent in yield above current levels around 2.14 percent. Yet Goncalves doesn't think yields can maintain their incredible pace of late.

"I think it's going to be really tough getting through the 2.25 level," he said. "It looks like we're trying to do a beeline toward it in the next day or so, [but] that would be a great buying opportunity because it's not going to be a straight shot higher."

And what about the warnings of the potential for a "crash" in the bond market, made most prominently by Nobel laureate economist Robert Shiller on Thursday's "Futures Now"?

Read MoreShiller warns bond investors: Beware of 'crash'!

"I really don't think that's the case," Goncalves said, pointing to the fact that yields are higher in the U.S. than in many developed economies around the globe.

"Look, if this [current bond selling] were to continue further, then cooler heads will prevail, and we'll actually see some decent buying once this global money hits our shore," he said.

Additionally, the bond expert makes the point that the Federal Reserve might not take higher yields lying down.

"If things were to get troublesome, they would do more QE, and we would somehow stop that bond crash that people speculate on," he predicted, referring to the central bank's now-competed bond-purchasing program.

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