"In light of all of this, I just don't see how a group that is trying to sustain its territory can possibly expand to AfPak [Afghanistan and Pakistan] or Libya," Bokhari said, explaining that the terrorists in Libya seem more likely to be loosely affiliated locals.
Additionally, he said, the "jihadi market is so saturated" in the embattled North African country, that ISIS is unlikely to easily win ground. Explaining that he understood the need for governments to assume worst-case scenarios, Bokhari said that some of the comments coming from European officials is "almost paranoia."
Still, even if ISIS is not prepared to launch a navy to cross the Mediterranean into Italy, the group's position in Libya could cause some new headaches for Europe, experts said.
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The largest concern will be that the North African country becomes a training ground and safe haven for ISIS-affiliated terrorists, said Christopher Chivvis, associate director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center and a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation.
European intelligence organizations are already "spread pretty thin" keeping track of possible extremists within their own borders and those coming in from Turkey, he said, so chaos in Libya is a "significant problem" for them.