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The number to watch for an oil bottom

An oil pipeline runs through Cushing, Okla.
Justin Solomon | CNBC
An oil pipeline runs through Cushing, Okla.

When OPEC took aim at the U.S. shale industry, forecasters expected to see a slowdown in U.S. oil production growth and then ultimately a drop in output. That, so far, has not happened, and production instead has continued to grow.