NASCAR's Sprint Cup series this Easter will have a rare weekend off in its 36-race schedule. After last Sunday's win by Denny Hamlin at Martinsville, we've now seen five different drivers win the first six races. Kevin Harvick has two wins, while four other drivers have one apiece. There are 20 more races to go before the "cutoff' for the Chase—NASCAR's version of the playoffs. The points system will be reset and only 16 drivers will qualify.
As the rules are currently set, every driver who gets a win during the first 26 races will qualify. That means we already have five drivers who are locked in. The rest of the 16 spots will be given to winless drivers who finished consistently high enough in the points standings.
The question then remains: How many different winners will there be? How many leftover spots will be filled by winless drivers? The answer matters because it affects how teams might strategize over the next few months, whether to make a risky call to win the race, or settle in for a solid top-five finish.
The chart below lists the current top drivers, and their recent winning percentage. The five names in green are the drivers who already have wins this year. The drivers in white still do not have a win this year. The drivers in red have such a low win percentage, like Danica Patrick's zero percent, that we would not expect them to get a win.