The contrarian way to play the Fed’s next move

The contrarian way to play the Fed's next move
The contrarian way to play the Fed's next move   

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates sometime in the next year and "Fast Money" trader Brian Kelly thinks buying longer-duration bonds is the best way to play it, no matter when the Fed makes its move.

The Fed has worked to keep interest rates low while the economy rebuilds itself from the 2008 financial crisis. However, it has monitored unemployment and inflation rates to determine an appropriate time to begin raising rates again. In its most recent statement, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that raising rates is on the table, but won't be happening in the month of April.

Still, bond prices should be falling as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve's widely forecasted plan to eventually raise rates, but the TLT is up about 4 percent this year. The TLT is an exchange traded fund (ETF) that tracks bond investments with a 20- to 30-year bond maturity. Interest rates and bonds traditionally have an inverse relationship, that means when interest rates rise it's typical for the price of bonds to fall.

So what's going to happen when the Fed pulls the trigger on rates? Kelly says, "You're going to get a stronger dollar. A stronger dollar is going to attract foreign capital into the U.S. In fact, it already has been. When foreign capital looks around for a good investment they see the TLT yield 3 percent, that's an unbelievable yield."

Kelly points to $130 as support for the TLT and thinks you should buy it here and hold on for the long run.

Disclosures: Kelly is long the TLT and 30-year Bond Futures.