Stable dollar, oil key for bull market: Investor

A board shows U.S. dollar exchange rates in Rio de Janeiro.
Sergio Moraes | Reuters
A board shows U.S. dollar exchange rates in Rio de Janeiro.

If you want to beat the market this year, you have to watch where the U.S. dollar and oil are trading, according to one investor who's trouncing the S&P 500 so far in 2015.

Jim Lebenthal, the current leader of the Halftime Report Model Portfolio competition, up 10 percent for the year, will reveal his strategy during CNBC Pro's very first live webinar today at 2pm EDT.

But here's a preview of his thoughts so you can make the trade now and then watch our streaming webinar for more of his picks.

Go to http://www.cnbc.com/protalks to view the webinar live. You MUST be a CNBC Pro subscriber.

As the chart below shows...

S&P 500, U.S. dollar ETF, Oil year-to-date

Source: FactSet

...as oil pushed into the green for the year and as the U.S. dollar began a sideways move, the S&P 500 went into positive territory for 2015.

"We're in a little bit of a sputter in terms of the U.S. economy," said Lebenthal. "As long as the dollar and oil stabilize, then the damage is done and we can resume from here."

Lebenthal is referring to the harm the rising dollar has caused to U.S. multinationals trying to sell their products overseas. Meanwhile, falling oil prices over the last year pummeled energy stocks.

Apple, the world's largest company by market cap, saw its shares trade lower on Wednesday after Societe Generale warned that currency exposure may impact earnings for the last quarter.

But according to Lebenthal this could be a buying opportunity.

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"If you don't own enough of Apple already, absolutely buy more on any weakness," said Lebenthal. It's "cheap and generates a lot of cash."

He thinks the most obvious secondary driver for the stock will be Apple Pay, a mobile payment systems that allows users to make purchases with their phones.

Another multinational the investor owns at his firm is Pfizer. For the moment, Lebenthal is betting BP will get a bounce from oil price stability.