Why the euro bounce may just be getting started

The euro has bounced sharply in the past week, rising to a two-month high against the dollar. And this could just be the start of the euro's move, says Rich Ross, head of technical analysis at Evercore ISI.

Examining the chart, Ross finds that the euro traded in a "double bottom" formation with a "higher low," indicating that the common currency was able to stay firmly above the previous short-term bottom.

"That gives you a sense that the trend is turning," Ross said Thursday on CNBC's "Power Lunch."


Further burnishing his bullish case is the fact that the euro broke decisively above the $1.10 level, which "projects measured upside to $1.15 ... ultimately I think we test the 150-day [moving average] around the $1.17 level."

Taking the broader view, Ross says that the countertrend move ultimately leaves "room for a bounce into $1.20 to $1.22," he said. "You want to be a buyer of the euro in anticipation of that bounce."

A further move higher would make sense given market positioning, said Andrew Burkly, head of portfolio analysis at Oppenheimer, in the same "Power Lunch" segment.

Going long the dollar against the euro "became a very crowded trade a month ago ... and we're starting to see that unwind a bit," he said.

However, not everyone is a true euro believer just yet.

While granting that a bullish technical case can be made, currency strategist Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management used bold red letters to warn clients in a Thursday afternoon missive that "the one thing that is NOT supporting the uptrend in the EUR/USD is fundamentals."

Short covering and the breaking of a resistance level have juiced the common currency in the near term, but given the state of the European economy, "these resistance levels along with the overstretched rally should lead to a near-term move back down to $1.10," Lien wrote.


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