As hurricane season comes upon us on June 1, we will be treated to a variety of hurricane forecasts, with different guesses about when and where landfall will hit, how intense the storm will be, and how much flooding we might expect.
All those forecasts will change each day.
And some of those forecasts will look very different than the rest.
So which forecast is the best? Which one do we trust?
This question matters because it's estimated to cost $1 million in lost economic output for each mile of evacuated coast land. The key for local officials is to minimize the evacuation zone—and a model that forecasts landfall needs to be as close as possible. Being off by 50, 100 or 150 miles is a major problem, and it hurts the ability for the public to trust the models in the future.