Elections in Turkey on Sunday could allow the controversial Justice and Development Party (AKP), and its former leader, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to consolidate their grip on power—despite the economic and political difficulties facing the country.
However, the AKP has seen a decline in support of late, against a backdrop of a fired-up opposition and a dampened economy. It is still ahead in voter polls cited by Reuters but could fall short of winning an overall majority of seats, muddying the potential outcome of Sunday's vote.
The AKP would need to win at least 276 of parliament's 550 seats to win a ruling majority, but could be thwarted if the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP) crosses the 10 percent threshold needed to enter parliament. This could potentially even force the AKP into a coalition, Reuters noted.
"If we trust opinion polls, it's almost out of the question that AKP will get the majority they need—or whether they will get any majority," Lubomir Mitov, chief economist for Central and Eastern Europe at Unicredit.