Cramer: Have Fitbit skeptics triggered a fortune?

Cramer measures negativity & skepticism
Cramer measures negativity & skepticism   

As the averages were breaking market records all over the place Thursday, Jim Cramer found the perfect recipe as to what caused the rally. It was one part benign Federal Reserve, one part declining dollar, one part possible Greece bailout and five parts skepticism and negativity.

Really, negativity led to a rally?

"I actually think there is plenty of pessimism and that's the most crucial ingredient when you're baking a rally cake, especially when you infuse it with a worry reduction sauce that stems from a more benign news backdrop," the "Mad Money" host said. (Tweet This)

The obvious trigger to the rally was Wednesday's Fed meeting, and based on what he heard in the press conference, Cramer wondered if anyone even heard what Fed Chief Janet Yellen said. She said things are better, not great, and right now it pays to wait before tightening.

Yet, somehow Yellen's view was mocked by hotshot money managers who want stocks to go lower and laissez-faire political gurus who dominated the airwaves.





Fitbit CEO James Park, third from right, stands behind co-founder and CTO Erid Friedman as he waves before ringing the opening bell on the day of the company's IPO above the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, June 18, 2015.
Lucas Jackson | Reuters
Fitbit CEO James Park, third from right, stands behind co-founder and CTO Erid Friedman as he waves before ringing the opening bell on the day of the company's IPO above the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, June 18, 2015.

In fact, if Cramer was the Fed chief, he would have acted more like Super Bowl champion coach Bill Belichick, going off on the reporters with something like, "What is it about what I'm saying you don't get? I'm not going to tell you when we're going to raise rates until the environment gets better. I'm not playing your game. You don't matter; I have no time for you," and then dropped the microphone and walked out.

Next ingredient to the rally was the mess with Greece. Cramer has seen a drastic change in tide with Greece, as we have gone from believing there was some sort of 11th hour move that will save Greece so we don't need to worry about it, to thinking it could break down into total chaos.

Either way, the talk of possible failure shows progress in the ability to diminish the "unknown factor" of the future for Greece. This allowed the market to rally.

But how do you measure the amount of negativity and skepticism in the market?

First, look at traditional methods such as the tally of the bulls and the bears taken by the Investors Intelligence poll that comes out every Wednesday. Cramer was absolutely shocked to see that the index had the fewest number of bulls since October.

The second measure of pessimism stemmed from the amazing Fitbit IPO.

"I was walking around the New York Stock Exchange today, and a lot of the guys I talked to thought that this stock opened up way too high. Others told me they were anxious to short it," Cramer said.

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But for his part, Cramer was shocked it didn't open up higher! He considers Fitbit to be a terrific company with amazing sales and earnings growth, and its CEO is always focused on profitability. That is exactly the reason why Cramer still thinks it is undervalued, even after it skyrocketed Thursday.

Granted, the 441 percent earnings growth is a bit outrageous. However, the stock still sells at only 23 times earnings estimates, which is about a 20 percent discount to where GoPro trades. Cramer thinks it is an insanely cheap stock, but because most people think it's a fad that will get crushed by the Apple Watch, they are pessimistic.

Cramer says that's not going to happen.

For him, tons of pessimism in the market tells Cramer that this rally is legitimate. The combination of light at the end of the tunnels forming for the Fed, Greece and the dollar are great ingredients to the rally as well.

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