With crude futures trading below $30 per barrel, analyst John Kilduff said Friday that prices will spiral even lower before they bounce.
The most bearish outlooks now see oil bottoming around $10 per barrel. While those estimates sound crazy, the long-awaited recovery will not come until the market finds a price that will finally persuade drillers to turn off the tap, Again Capital's founder said.
"The market is going to have to get to a shock price point that's going to bring producers … really to their knees and to finally react," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box."
High-cost production has thus far weathered a Saudi-led OPEC policy of maintaining output in order to maintain market share and pressure non-OPEC members.
U.S. drillers have proved more resilient at lower prices than previously thought, while exporting nations dependent on oil revenue, such as Russia, have refused to draw down production.