The chances of a recession in the United States are at their highest levels since the fall of 2011, according to the CNBC Fed Survey.
The survey also showed recession fears rising for the sixth straight time among respondents, and are now sitting at 28.8 percent.
One fairly reliable recession indicator, the spread between the 2-year and 10-year bonds has weakened just about to its lowest level since the last recession. But it tends to signal recession at zero... So at 118 basis points, it's softer, but not soft enough to signal recession.