The market cannot decide how it feels. All week we were in the quasi-panic mode that has characterized the entire year. Oil down. Bond yields down. Gold up. Yen strengthening. Global stock markets down.
Then, everything changed at 2:30 p.m., ET, on Thursday. That's when oil, which was trading at $26, a 12-year-low, turned around on remarks from the UAE oil minister that OPEC may agree on a production cut.
No one believed that, but the world changed. Everything reversed! Oil rallied! Bond yields rose! Gold went down! The yen weakened!
Stocks rallied! The Monkees announced a world tour! (OK, it wasn't yesterday but they really did).
Signs and wonders! And that trend continued into Friday. In fact, the S&P has rallied about 50 points since 2:30 p.m. Thursday.
This is all the more remarkable because we are going into a three-day weekend, and you know the drill...with all the volatility, traders are wary holding positions when China will reopen on Monday and our markets are closed.
But that wasn't a worry today.
What's it mean? If oil puts in a convincing bottom, that would be important. But nothing has happened to indicate that it has. Nothing!
Next week, we'll hear from ECB head Mario Draghi, who speaks in Brussels Monday; Japan reports fourth-quarter GDP; and we'll hear from the big retailers, including Walmart.