But even in those states, the delegates will get split up pretty evenly so Clinton's big lead (aided by super delegates) will only keep growing. Clinton already leads Sanders by 544 to 85 delegates after the first four contests. She will build on that lead Tuesday and probably put the nomination out of reach by March 15 which features contests in Florida and Ohio. She needs 2,383 delegates to lock up the nomination.
On the Republican side, despite frantic efforts by the establishment and ideological conservatives, Trump's momentum shows few signs of slowing. A national CNN/ORC poll out Monday showed Trump at 49 percent, 33 points ahead of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 16 percent with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 15 percent. Those numbers suggest none of the remaining GOP candidates could take down Trump, even if they somehow get him one-on-one.
Trump could come close to running the table Tuesday. He holds big leads in state polls from Massachusetts to Alabama. Cruz should be able to win his home state of Texas, though polling is all over the map in the Lone Star State. Should Cruz lose Texas to Trump, it would effectively end his campaign.
That would likely be the ideal result for Rubio, who is counting on a smaller field to give him a clearer shot at the front-runner. The Florida U.S. senator, who is on a scorched-earth campaign to discredit Trump as a "con man," will face his biggest test on March 15 when his home state votes in a winner-take-all primary with 99 delegates at stake. If Rubio can't beat Trump in Florida the race will effectively be over, though some Republicans hope to still deny Trump the 1,237 delegates needed to lock up the nomination before the GOP convention in Cleveland.
Rubio is not expected to win a single state Tuesday. He hopes only to keep it close and beat Cruz outside of Texas while continuing to add to his delegate count which currently stands at 16 to 82 for Trump and 17 for Cruz.
Under the brokered convention scenario, Trump will lead on the first ballot but without a majority. Then delegates will be free to move to other candidates such as Rubio or Cruz. In the unlikeliest of outcomes, the party turns to a consensus candidate not currently in the race like House Speaker Paul Ryan or 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney. These scenarios exist mostly in the fever dreams of an establishment terrified of a nominee with sky-high national negative ratings who spent Sunday declining on national television to issue a clear denunciation of former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke.