Stocks could move another 9 percent before things get ugly.
On CNBC's "Futures Now" Thursday, Canaccord Genuity market strategist Tony Dwyer made the case for his 12-month rolling 2,175 S&P 500 price target despite growing negativity among his Wall Street counterparts.
"Every global central bank is printing money. That's going to end very badly. That's where I totally agree with my bearish friends," said Dwyer. "But you're still on the plus side of that cycle."
The S&P 500 is up about 9 percent over the past 20 days, leaving speculation that investors are seeing a bear market rally. But if that's the case, Dwyer pointed out it would represent the shortest and one of the lower percent-gain bear market rallies since 1957 — the year it became a 500-stock index.
"(For) a real recession-driven bear market, you need an inversion of the yield curve," added Dwyer. "You need banks to say, 'I can't borrow short and lend long because I'm going to lose money doing it.' "
Dwyer further argued it's too early to expect renewed downside.
"As long as inflation is low and stable and the Fed is easy, using a real funds rate which is still negative, the yield curve is steep, the economy is positive, you're going to end up eventually going up higher over the next six to 12 months. And that's where we have conviction," said Dwyer.
As long as oil doesn't tank back to $20 a barrel and corporate credit doesn't widen out to historic levels, then that scenario could soon drive stocks market to new all-time highs, according to Dwyer.
But longer term, he noted, a lot will hinge on how the Federal Reserve and other major central banks continue to handle low rates. If they end up destabilizing the global economy by their easing monetary policies and printing money, then the health of the markets will be in serious jeopardy.