Although the market, I do believe, is fairly valued, I expect it to move upward between now and the end of the year to somewhere between 2125 and 2150 on the S&P 500. (This is only a couple of percentage points higher than the close on Friday, so don't get too excited.)
Future earnings pick-up should be a driver. The dollar has weakened, and that will be positive for earnings as we move through the year; we expect to see earnings accelerate from a weak first quarter. (Note that since the recovery began in 2009, most earnings for the first quarter have been soft compared to subsequent quarters that year.) And the energy sector will be a smaller drag given the move up in oil prices.
But what if, as some economists believe, GDP for the first quarter comes on April 28th just a hair below zero? I wouldn't be alarmed. If stocks swoon, I'd look at it as a buying opportunity. We'll see GDP improvement in the third and fourth quarters. I would expect some improvement in the second quarter, too, thus avoiding two consecutive quarters of negative growth, which is what some technically define as a recession.