Despite all the uncertainty and rancor surrounding November's U.S. presidential election, one thing is clear: Past trends indicate that the economy could be facing a recession — and could drag the market down with it.
So believes Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com, who crunched the historical figures that suggest, regardless of who becomes the next president, the markets could be in trouble. According to Henrich's analysis, data show that since 1960, 70 percent of new presidents face an economic downturn very early in their first term.
"Historically, that's not good for markets, as they correct between 13 to 40 percent during a recession," Henrich said last week on CNBC's "Futures Now."
Henrich contended that much of the trend could have to do with consumers' uncertainty during transitions between presidents, but he also believes that the coming election differs from those of the past. This, in turn, doesn't bode well for markets, and may heighten the chance of an economic slump.
"In this particular cycle, we're seeing something that we've never seen before in any U.S. election, and that is neither candidate, whether it's Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, have a majority support within the population," said Henrich. "So no matter who wins, in January Americans are faced with a president that the majority doesn't support."
The latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that the lead by Democratic presidential candidate Clinton over Republican nominee Trump was narrowing, this ahead of Monday's first presidential debate.
"I have no idea how this is reflected in consumer confidence, but it doesn't seem to suggest that consumers will be very confident with their new president," he added.