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The biggest trend of 2016? The disconnect between commentary and reality

The biggest trend this year has been the disconnect between what the commentators's analysis and forecasts and what actually happened, a leading macro strategist has told CNBC.

Nick Carn, founder of Carn Macro Advisors, said the Trump and Brexit phenomenon were 2016's big turning points in a number of ways – partly for markets and partly for political economy. He added that these events have shown the disconnect between commentary and reality.

"We have seen this and this has been the big feature of this year," Carn told CNBC Wednesday.

"It was there during Brexit, you know what the commentators had to say and what the voters had to say. There was a big disconnect during the American presidential election as well."

Photographer | Collection | Getty Images

While the markets have slowly tried to recover from the initial losses during these two electoral shocks, Carn pointed that this trend has continued even after these big events.

"That really continued after those big events and what we are looking at is that the commentary says there is a great deal of uncertainty out there whilst if you look at data such as the consumer confidence in the U.S., it hit the highest since 2001. So these people may be wrong but there certainly isn't any kind of uncertainty," Carn said.

Markets suffered a massive setback on June 23 after Britain voted to leave the European Union. The surveys and polls leading up to the referendum had pointed to a win for the remain camp and so when the opposite happened, there was a burst of panic in markets across the globe.

The pound is still bearing the brunt of the volatility created due to the Brexit vote. The currency has seen a lot of volatility since the referendum in June. While the initial moves were dramatic, plunging from the highs of $1.50 to a 31-year low of $1.32, the currency continues to remain under pressure at current levels of $1.22. Sterling is down nearly 17 percent since the start of the year.

Global markets witnessed a similar trend on November 8 when Americans voted in the presidential elections. While opinion polls pointed to a lead for Hillary Clinton, a surprising victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump initially shook global markets but they have recovered since then. Wall Street stocks have been rallying after suffering initial losses with all three major indexes hitting record highs.

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