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Kensho Stats

Gold surge on Trump uncertainty may keep going in February, history shows

Molten gold pours from a furnace during the final stage of the refining process.
Duncan Chard | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Molten gold pours from a furnace during the final stage of the refining process.

Gold prices are rallying to start 2017 on concern President Donald Trump will institute protectionist policies and weaken the U.S. dollar. History says a one-month surge in gold tends to keep going during the following month.

The yellow metal was up 5 percent for January through midday Tuesday, the best month since June. Trump has seemed to go back-and-forth in recent weeks on supporting a border adjustment tax, which is a key component of the Republican tax reform plan.

"Our sense is that Mr. Trump doesn't hold any core policy beliefs and is apt to change his mind as he sees fit. This will lead to more political and economic uncertainty and less stability," hedge fund manager David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital wrote in a Jan. 17 investor letter to clients. Gold is one of Einhorn's top five largest positions.

Using Kensho, a quantitative tool used by hedge funds, CNBC PRO screened for how gold and gold-related ETFs performed the month after the metal rose 5 percent or more in a month.



The findings show gold rallied 1.8 percent on average over the next month after it surged the previous month, according to a Kensho study looking at the last decade. In the same time periods, the S&P 500 and U.S. dollar index were roughly flat.


ETFs such as the iShares Gold Trust and SPDR Gold Trust were among the best performers in that month following a gold surge.

Disclosure: NBCUniversal, parent of CNBC, is a minority investor in Kensho.