Practically no one expected the Federal Reserve to do very much at this week's meeting, but it's possible the central bank actually did less.
The Fed did not raise interest rates on Wednesday and gave no indication of when the next hike might happen — virtually a prerequisite for movement on rates. As a result, 2017 is shaping up as another year in which Fed officials' time frame for rate hikes is looking too aggressive.
At least in the market's eyes, there is little chance of a hike in March, and not much likelihood that the Fed will meet the projections at the December meeting that indicated three hikes are on the way this year.
The probability for a move at the March meeting actually decreased, falling from as high as 25 percent earlier in the week to just shy of 18 percent Thursday, according to derivatives marketplace CME.
There's about a 1 in 3 chance the Federal Open Market Committee will go in May, but the next real move is projected for June, with about a 69 percent probability as interpreted through fed funds futures contracts.
Looking further ahead, traders believe there's also a 69 percent chance of another hike in December. However, the market currently assigns just a 35 percent chance that the Fed moves three times this year, which would take the funds rate to the 1.25 to 1.5 percent range from the current 0.5 to 0.75 percent level.
Of course, many variables could change the Fed's thinking. Faster-than-expected growth, particularly in market-based inflation measures, as well as stronger job reports than the middling gains expected through the year, might force the hand of policymakers.
But as things stand, the market mostly believes the Fed will be reticent to move quickly.